[SMM comment] before the festival, non-ferrous red copper and zinc rose by more than 1%. Black oil fell back and the last period of crude oil drifted green.

SMM2, March 10: copper futures on the London Metal Exchange ((LME)) hit an one-month high on Tuesday as the metal in the outer disk was red yesterday, on the back of a weaker dollar, optimism about the $1.9 trillion US stimulus package and tight supply. As the US prepares to pass a possible $1.9 trillion stimulus package within weeks, the dollar index has fallen to its lowest level in a week. A weaker dollar makes dollar-denominated copper futures more attractive to global buyers. There were ups and downs in the LME metal market this morning. As of 09:30, Lun Copper rose nearly 0.6%, Lun Zinc rose nearly 0.3%, Lun Aluminum rose nearly 0.5%, Lunxi Nickel fell nearly 0.2%, Lunxi slightly rose, Lunxi lead fell nearly 0.3%. Domestically, international copper rose nearly 1.2%, Shanghai Copper rose nearly 1.1%, Shanghai Aluminum rose nearly 0.2%, Shanghai lead fell nearly 1.2%, and Shanghai Zinc rose nearly 1.2%. Shanghai nickel rose nearly 0.2%, and Shanghai tin rose nearly 0.4%.

On the copper side, on the macro side, it was announced at night that API crude oil stocks in the United States fell sharply by 3.5 million barrels in the week ending February 5, much lower than expected. Crude oil inventories fell unexpectedly, and US oil rebounded from its low and closed higher at night. Risk sentiment continued to improve on optimistic expectations of the bailout and gains in US stocks, with the dollar index falling to its lowest in more than a week in volatile trading, supporting copper gains.

[minutes of SMM Morning meeting] crude oil closed up again at night and copper continued to fluctuate at high levels.

In terms of aluminum, on the last working day before the Spring Festival, holiday factors have become the main influencing factor. Light trading and risk aversion demand for funds may lead to a certain correction in Shanghai Aluminum, but at the same time, the market is still optimistic about post-holiday consumption. the range of correction is expected to be relatively limited today, so we need to continue to pay attention to the impact of post-holiday inventory changes on market sentiment and contract structure.

[minutes of SMM Morning meeting] pre-festival trading list of funds for risk aversion Shanghai Aluminum slightly pullback

In terms of lead, overnight LME lead inventory Asia warehouse continued to go to the warehouse, the total inventory decreased by 400 tons to 92850 tons. The overnight market was stimulated by the US 1.9 trillion fiscal plan, and the US dollar index fell all the way, which boosted Lun lead higher. However, due to the uncertainty of overseas car market consumption, Lun lead was under a little more pressure to stand firm in the near future, and finally walked out of the negative pillar of the long shadow line. Overnight, Shanghai lead was boosted by the strength of Lun lead in early trading, and the general rise of A-share non-ferrous shares during the day continued to push the center of gravity of Shanghai lead up at night. during the holidays, we still need to pay attention to the market's expectation of post-holiday industry recovery and its impact on Shanghai lead.

[minutes of SMM Morning meeting] overnight the outer disk rallied and fell back to support the lead price before the small rise in Shanghai and the macro-warmth before the festival.

In terms of zinc, overnight Shanghai zinc recorded a cross Xingyang line, the middle rail of the upper Bollinger Road was pressed, the lower 5-day moving average line was supported upward, and the KDJ opening was expanded. Driven by overseas optimism overnight, Shanghai Zinc was also strong. Under the guidance of the initiative of celebrating the Spring Festival on the spot, work is expected to return to work early after the Spring Festival this year, and market expectations for infrastructure and other consumption after the year also boost the trend of zinc in Shanghai. Pay short-term attention to the inventory situation after the year.

[minutes of SMM Morning meeting] Zinc prices fluctuated strongly overnight, focusing on inventory accumulation after the festival.

In terms of nickel, the news that ignited the market most last week was the increase in the power restriction policy in Inner Mongolia, the rising trend of high-carbon ferrochromium, forming cost support for stainless steel; from the perspective of nickel itself, it still maintained a good judgment in the early stage. With the Spring Festival approaching the mentality of traders is more cautious, the price itself is difficult to have more fluctuations, but the fundamentals look at nickel is relatively ideal, stainless steel factory output is higher than the same period in previous years and the hot market of new energy still exists, market participants are more optimistic about the post-holiday market and the long-term trend of nickel, bulls release bargain-seeking intention to increase positions.

[minutes of SMM Morning meeting] as the holiday approaches, there are few transactions in the nickel market and the stainless steel market is quiet.

In terms of black, thread slightly dropped, hot coil rose nearly 0.1%, coking coal and coke fell nearly 0.7%, iron ore rose nearly 0.8%, stainless steel rose nearly 0.3%, news face. According to the industry statistics of China Construction Machinery Industry Association, 26 mainframe manufacturing enterprises included in January 2021 sold a total of 19601 sets of excavation machinery products, an increase of 97.2% over the same period last year. Of these, sales in the domestic market were 16026, up 106.6% over the same period last year, and export sales were 3575, up 63.7% from the same period last year.

Crude oil fell nearly 0.4 per cent in the previous period, while US crude oil futures rose for a seventh straight session on Tuesday, hitting a 13-month high as investors continued to bet on increased fuel demand as OPEC (OPEC) and allies restricted supplies. The oil market has risen since November as the world began to be vaccinated and governments and central banks launched massive stimulus packages to boost economic activity.

In terms of precious metals, Shanghai gold fell slightly, and Shanghai silver fell nearly 0.9%. Comex gold futures closed higher for the third trading day in a row on Tuesday and reached their highest close in more than a week, as the weaker dollar and hopes for more fiscal stimulus measures in the United States boosted the attractiveness of gold to investors seeking to hedge against inflation. Analysts point out that gold prices are expected to continue to rise as Washington continues to negotiate a stimulus package. The stimulus package is the biggest driver of gold prices. Nevertheless, we still need to see gold above $1900 before we can be sure that the bulls have returned to the market.

As of 09:30, the status of contracts in the metals and crude oil markets:

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